Daily Papers

Fine-grained robotic evaluation matters for understanding embodied models, going beyond binary success rates and rule-based process scores. We present PRM-as-a-Judge 1.5, a toolkit for robot process assessment that turns rollout videos into dense progress curves and derives multiple fine metrics. PRM-as-a-Judge 1.5 introduces three metrics, building on version 1.0, that characterize failure-side progress, post-drawdown recovery, and success-side execution quality, helping users understand embodied model capability. Based on the rollout videos from benchmarks, we perform a comprehensive assessment of the embodied models, providing some fine-grained metric results and key findings. We further introduce RoboPulse++ to evaluate the reliability of process reward models (PRM), providing evaluators with a more accurate testing platform. Moreover, we release a user-friendly assessment suite, including the benchmark, metric implementation, and visualization tools, to support reproducible manipulation process evaluation. We call on the community to rethink how robots are evaluated and establish transparent, procedural, and reproducible assessment as a foundation for the next generation of embodied intelligence.

Managing drawdown, the peak-to-trough decline in an investment portfolio's value, is a precondition for long-term survival in practical investment management. However, mainstream stock forecasting methods predominantly optimize returns or Sharpe ratios under the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) assumption. Real markets do not follow this assumption, triggering catastrophic drawdowns. We propose a cross-asset state-space trading system (CAST), consisting of two components: The predictor, Cross-Asset Collaborative Kalman Filter (CoKF), estimates each asset's latent state online, coupling all assets through their correlations and adaptively fusing multiple integrated-random-walk orders. The controller, Model Predictive Control (MPC), converts the predictor's forecast into trades, using forecast uncertainty as an explicit risk penalty that controls drawdown. We evaluate CAST on four real-world stock markets over a 15-year test window and show that it consistently occupies the return-drawdown Pareto frontier, achieving strong risk-adjusted performance while maintaining substantially lower maximum drawdown than competitive baselines. A stress test across crisis periods further demonstrates robust behavior under market shocks and distribution shift. Because the predictor and controller interact only through the predicted price path, both are plug-and-play, making CAST a modular, interpretable trading system. The code is available at https://github.com/FanBroWell/CAST

Pruning has become a widely adopted technique for reducing the hardware requirements of large language models (LLMs). To recover model performance after pruning, post-training is commonly employed to mitigate the resulting performance degradation. While post-training benefits from larger datasets, once the dataset size is already substantial, increasing the training data provides only limited performance gains. To balance post-training cost and model performance, it is necessary to explore the optimal amount of post-training data.Through extensive experiments on the Llama-3 and Qwen-2.5 series models, pruned using various common pruning methods, we uncover the scaling Law for Post-training after model Pruning, referred to as the P^2 Law.This law identifies four key factors for predicting the pruned model's post-training loss: the model size before pruning, the number of post-training tokens, the pruning rate, and the model's loss before pruning. Moreover, P^2 Law can generalize to larger dataset sizes, larger model sizes, and higher pruning rates, offering valuable insights for the post-training of pruned LLMs.

Loss Given Default (LGD) modeling faces a fundamental data quality constraint: 90% of available training data consists of proxy estimates based on pre-distress balance sheets rather than actual recovery outcomes from completed bankruptcy proceedings. We demonstrate that this mixture-contaminated training structure causes systematic failure of recursive partitioning methods, with Random Forest achieving negative r-squared (-0.664, worse than predicting the mean) on held-out test data. Information-theoretic approaches based on Shannon entropy and mutual information provide superior generalization, achieving r-squared of 0.191 and RMSE of 0.284 on 1,218 corporate bankruptcies (1980-2023). Analysis reveals that leverage-based features contain 1.510 bits of mutual information while size effects contribute only 0.086 bits, contradicting regulatory assumptions about scale-dependent recovery. These results establish practical guidance for financial institutions deploying LGD models under Basel III requirements when representative outcome data is unavailable at sufficient scale. The findings generalize to medical outcomes research, climate forecasting, and technology reliability-domains where extended observation periods create unavoidable mixture structure in training data.

Retraining-free MoE compression reduces deployment memory by pruning or merging experts, but often treats the compressed checkpoint as the final artifact. We argue that this view is incomplete: compressed MoE checkpoints are better understood as compressed initializations that benefit from a tiny post-compression adjustment stage. Across two MoE LLM backbones, four pruning/merging methods, three expert-retention ratios, and 28 benchmarks, we compare LM fine-tuning and teacher-based KD under matched small-data budgets and measured GPU costs. Using only 3,000 C4 examples and a single epoch of adjustment, Full FT recovers 37.3% of the original-to-compressed performance gap on average. Moreover, LM fine-tuning is more cost-effective than standard token-level KD, and full-parameter adjustment gives the strongest cost--recovery trade-off among the tested scopes. These results suggest that retraining-free compression should be paired with small post-compression adjustment to recover a substantial portion of the performance lost during compression.

Structured pruning is a hardware-friendly way to compress LLMs, but it is mostly validated on multiple-choice recognition tasks, while the same compressed checkpoints can collapse on the free-form generation that deployment actually requires. Two observations trace this gap. First, greedy pass@1 nearly vanishes after compression, yet pass@k recovers substantially under repeated sampling: useful generations are demoted, not erased. Second, the recoverable regime fails mainly through suffix repetition. Recovery should therefore train on the compressed model's own on-policy states with dense token-level supervision, which On-Policy Distillation (OPD) provides by reusing the pre-compression model as a frozen teacher. However, long on-policy rollouts spend early recovery budget on low-information repetitive suffixes, delaying loss descent. To mitigate this waste, we propose \shortopd, a short-to-long OPD schedule that detects teacher-confirmed repetitive suffixes, treats the surviving prefix as each rollout's effective length, and allocates future rollout budgets to the effective lengths the policy can currently use. Across math, code, and open-ended generation, \shortopd\ raises the compressed model's score to about 9times its unrecovered value and 1.6--4.4times standard recovery recipes (SFT w/o KD, KD, and SeqKD), and it matches a fixed 8192-token rollout horizon within two points using a quarter of the training time (8.5 vs.\ 35.9 hours) and 71% fewer rollout tokens. We hope this recipe helps move structured pruning beyond marginal gains on perplexity and multiple-choice benchmarks, a step closer to deployment-ready generation quality.

The ability to measure and track the speed and trajectory of a community's post-disaster recovery is essential to inform resource allocation and prioritization. The current survey-based approaches to examining community recovery, however, have significant lags and put the burden of data collection on affected people. Also, the existing literature lacks quantitative measures for important milestones to inform the assessment of recovery trajectory. Recognizing these gaps, this study uses location-based data related to visitation patterns and credit card transactions to specify critical recovery milestones related to population activity recovery. Using data from 2017 Hurricane Harvey in Harris County (Texas), the study specifies four critical post-disaster recovery milestones and calculates quantitative measurements of the length of time between the end of a hazard event and when the spatial areas (census tracts) reached these milestones based on fluctuations in visits to essential and non-essential facilities, and essential and non-essential credit card transactions. Accordingly, an integrated recovery metric is created for an overall measurement of each spatial area's recovery progression. Exploratory statistical analyses were conducted to examine whether variations in community recovery progression in achieving the critical milestones is correlated to its flood status, socioeconomic characteristics, and demographic composition. Finally, the extent of spatial inequality is examined. The results show the presence of moderate spatial inequality in population activity recovery in Hurricane Harvey, based upon which the inequality of recovery is measured. Results of this study can benefit post-disaster recovery resource allocation as well as improve community resilience towards future natural hazards.

Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) decompose residual-stream activations into interpretable features. Recent latent-space defenses increasingly rely on these decompositions, assuming that identified "unsafe" SAE features serve as actionable handles for monitoring and intervention. In this paradigm, clamping a specific harmful feature is expected to reliably prevent model misbehavior. However, we show that this success may hide a recoverable failure mode: the clamp may block one visible route to a behavior without eliminating the behavior itself. We formulate this vulnerability as post-intervention recovery, a constrained residual-space optimization problem. Starting from the post-intervention residual state, we optimize residual perturbations to recover the pre-intervention behavior while preserving the post-intervention values of the targeted SAE features. Even under a strong threat model where the intervention remains active throughout optimization and generation, recovery remains possible. To rule out that recovery simply undoes the intervention, we use encoder-orthogonal updates for single-layer interventions and the corresponding feature-map Jacobian in the cross-layer setting. Across TPP, unlearning, IOI, and refusal steering experiments, this stress test reveals recoverable behavior despite successful feature-level intervention. Especially in the safety-critical refusal-steering setting, we achieve a 95.8% recovery rate on valid samples while keeping defended-feature relative drift to 0.131, substantially below suffix-based baselines. A recovery-path attribution analysis further localizes this recovery to the SAE reconstruction residual, the component left unexplained by the SAE. These results expose a gap between feature-level control and behavioral completeness: SAE features can support causal intervention, but controlling them does not guarantee control over the underlying behavior.

We develop and counterfactually evaluate a resolution-aware risk-design framework (PIRAP) for perpetual futures whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The framework specifies six components: an index estimator combining mid-price, depth-weighted mid, and time-decayed VWAP; jump-aware tiered margin sized against bounded-event terminal-collapse magnitude; leverage compression schedule contracting toward resolution; resolution-aware funding rule with boundary-aware correction; a multi-stage halt protocol; and an eligibility framework. Two formal non-portability propositions establish that standard basis-only funding paired with continuous-vol static margin fails on bounded-event underlyings. Empirical evaluation uses Polymarket's PMXT v2 archive for 2026-04-21 to 2026-04-27 (13,298-market analysis sample passing adequacy gates from 61,087 ingested; 13,115 resolved within the empirical window for E3). E1 evaluates two pre-registered stylized facts; E2 conducts counterfactual replay across three engine configurations; E3 isolates the resolution-zone protocol's contribution. Results are mixed. Five pre-registered floors: stylized-fact floors (boundary depth asymmetry, terminal-jump magnitude) PASS; welfare-side directional floors (final-hour liquidation -6%, drawdown -5.1% pooled, median PnL +14%) two FAIL one PASS; E3 mechanic floors (final-hour liquidation -80% by halt construction PASS; bad-debt frequency +2.4% FAIL). Three of five materiality floors fail: the framework as specified does not validate deployment, but the empirical record establishes a halt-versus-margin scope distinction (halt addresses execution-channel risk; terminal-jump bad-debt remains margin-side) and documents a pre-emption trade-off constraining the dynamic-margin component. The paper concludes with structural recommendations and explicit non-deployable status.

Late payments and limited working capital propagate liquidity stress across supply chains, especially among small and medium sized enterprises. This paper develops a path enabled clearing framework for invoice backed trade networks and evaluates Byppay, a local compensation procedure based on repeated three party reductions. Unlike cycle restricted netting, which can clear only obligations embedded in directed cycles, Byppay can also reduce obligations along open chains while preserving node net positions on a combined post settlement state composed of the residual invoice graph and a generated settlement instruction layer. The paper contributes by formalizing this framework for invoice networks, defining a comparable post settlement metric system, specifying deterministic benchmark procedures, and assessing them on the same real invoice graphs. The empirical analysis uses the 2021 IMI invoice corpus of 133,191 invoices totaling EUR 19.67 billion. On the annual aggregate, the cycle restricted Netting benchmark achieves EUR 4.13 billion of debt relief, or 20.99%, whereas Byppay achieves EUR 10.60 billion, or 53.87%. In the metric system adopted here, gross obligation reduction and liquidity relief are both measured on post settlement payable mass and are therefore identical for both procedures. The results show that path enabled local compensation reaches a substantially larger reduction fixed point than a cycle restricted benchmark on the same invoice graphs, while also supporting a deployable execution logic compatible with selective disclosure and distributed coordination.

On-policy distillation (OPD) is a promising approach for training language agents, providing dense teacher supervision on student-generated trajectories. However, in multi-turn interaction, an incorrect action changes the states the student encounters later, so errors compound across turns. In preliminary experiments across three Qwen3 models (8B to 235B), we find that more than half of the failed rollouts contain a pivotal mistake, an action that moves the agent farther from completing the task, and this mistake typically occurs early. These pivotal mistakes often remain recoverable: guiding the model for only a few turns after the pivotal turn can restore task success. We therefore propose PivotOPD, an on-policy distillation framework that jointly trains the student to prevent pivotal mistakes and to recover from the states they create. At each pivotal mistake, a teacher model provides a gold action and then names a recovery action at each of the next few turns. Preventive distillation uses the gold action with reverse KL to steer the student away from the pivotal mistake, while recovery distillation uses the recovery actions with forward KL to transfer recovery behaviors that the student rarely samples. Against 13 baselines on ALFWorld, WebShop, and Search-based QA, PivotOPD achieves the strongest average performance for both Qwen3-1.7B and Qwen3-8B students, improving over the strongest baseline on ALFWorld by +5.5% with the 1.7B student. The gains also transfer to another model family on the software engineering domain, where PivotOPD raises the resolve rate of a Nemotron-3.5 student on SWE-Bench Verified by +3.2%. Project page: https://research.nvidia.com/labs/lpr/pivotopd/

Low-bit post-training quantization (PTQ) is a practical route to deploy reasoning-capable LLMs under tight memory and latency budgets, yet it can markedly impair mathematical reasoning (drops up to 69.81% in our harder settings). We address two deployment-critical questions with process-level precision: Where along a step-structured solution does degradation first arise? How to mitigate it while staying in the low-bit regime? Across widely used PTQ methods (AWQ, GPTQ, SmoothQuant), open-source model families (Qwen, LLaMA; 0.5--7B), and math reasoning benchmarks (GSM8K, MATH, AIME), we perform format-aligned chain-of-thought with step-aligned attribution and uncover two robust regularities: (i) PTQ disproportionately elevates method and execution errors relative to high-level conceptual mistakes; and (ii) failures emerge early, with the first vulnerable step flipping and cascading to the final answer. These regularities suggest a general intervention principle: restore local token-level margins exactly at the earliest failure frontier. We instantiate this principle as a lightweight measurerightarrowlocaterightarrowrestore loop that operates directly on the quantized model: detect the first faulty step, construct our "Silver Bullet" datasets, and apply small-scale supervised/preference tuning. In our settings, as few as 332 curated examples and 3--5 minutes of compute on a single GPU recover 4-bit weight math reasoning toward the full-precision baseline while preserving PTQ efficiency. Our framework is quantizer- and architecture-agnostic within the evaluated regimes, and turns low-bit degradation from a global accuracy problem into a local, reproducible process intervention.

Training LLMs on decentralized and wimpy computation nodes, e.g., multiple on-spot instances, lowers the training cost and enables model democratization. The inevitable challenge here is the churn of nodes due to failures and the operator's scheduling policies, leading to losing a stage - a part of the model. The conventional approaches to recover from failures are to either use checkpointing, where periodically a copy of the entire model is sent to an additional storage, or redundant computation. These approaches yield significant communication and/or computation overhead even in non-failure cases and scale poorly in settings with large models. In this paper, we propose, CheckFree, an efficient recovery method where a failing stage is substituted by a weighted average of the closest neighboring stages. In contrast to the state of the art, CheckFree requires no additional computation or storage. However, because of the nature of averaging neighbouring stages, it can only recover failures of intermediate stages. We further extend our method to CheckFree+ with out-of-order pipeline execution to tolerate crashes of the first and last stages. Thanks to out-of-order pipelining, behaviour of those stages is mimicked by their neighboring ones, which allows CheckFree+ to recover them by simply copying the weights from the immediate neighbour. To be able to recover the (de)embedding layers, CheckFree+ copies those layers to the neighboring stages, which requires relatively small storage overhead. We extensively evaluate our method on LLaMa models of model sizes from 124M to 1.5B with varying failure frequencies. In the case of low and medium failure rates (5-10%), CheckFree and CheckFree+ outperform both checkpointing and redundant computation in terms of convergence in wall-clock time by over 12%. Both of our proposals can be run via our code available at: https://github.com/gensyn-ai/CheckFree.

Synthetic post-training pipelines commonly filter generated samples with reward models or holistic LLM judges, yet two practices remain rarely examined together: whether the filtering signal is grounded in the source evidence that induced each generation, and whether rejected samples can be systematically recovered rather than permanently discarded. We present a controlled study of both questions across gate configurations, recovery strategies, and generator scales, using adversarially injected corpora to provide ground-truth failure labels. We find that exact source provenance improves faithfulness gating for stronger judges, that hallucination and reward gates reject largely disjoint sample populations making both necessary, and that an adaptive recovery pipeline combining failure diagnosis with targeted regeneration achieves higher yield, recovery rate, and injection recall than naive resampling. Downstream fine-tuning quality is driven primarily by generator scale, with filtration and recovery conditions contributing meaningfully but secondarily.

Model pruning is an effective approach for compressing large language models. However, this process often leads to significant degradation of model capabilities. While post-training techniques such as instruction tuning are commonly employed to recover model performance, existing methods often overlook the uneven deterioration of model capabilities and incur high computational costs. Moreover, some instruction data irrelevant to model capability recovery may introduce negative effects. To address these challenges, we propose the Post-training dAta Selection method for Efficient pruned large language model Recovery (PASER). PASER aims to identify instructions where model capabilities are most severely compromised within a certain recovery data budget. Our approach first applies manifold learning and spectral clustering to group recovery data in the semantic space, revealing capability-specific instruction sets. We then adaptively allocate the data budget to different clusters based on the degrees of model capability degradation. In each cluster, we prioritize data samples where model performance has declined dramatically. To mitigate potential negative transfer, we also detect and filter out conflicting or irrelevant recovery data. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PASER significantly outperforms conventional baselines, effectively recovering the general capabilities of pruned LLMs while utilizing merely 4\%-20\% of the original post-training data.

This paper proposes a formal framework for reverse stress testing geopolitical risk in corporate credit portfolios. A joint macro-financial scenario vector, augmented with an explicit geopolitical risk factor, is mapped into stressed probabilities of default and losses given default. These stresses are then propagated to portfolio tail losses through a latent factor structure and translated into a stressed CET1 ratio, jointly accounting for capital depletion and risk-weighted asset dynamics. Reverse stress testing is formulated as a constrained maximum likelihood problem over the scenario space. This yields a geopolitical point reverse stress test, or design point, defined as the most probable scenario that breaches a prescribed capital adequacy constraint under a reference distribution. The framework further characterises neighbourhoods and near optimal sets of reverse stress scenarios, allowing for sensitivity analysis and governance oriented interpretation. The approach is compatible with internal rating based models and supports implementation at the exposure or sector level.

Machine unlearning aims to eliminate the influence of sensitive data on a model. In the real world, unlearning requests arrive continually, which gives rise to two challenges. First, an unlearning intervention may redistribute target-related computation across remaining pathways, allowing previously forgotten knowledge to re-emerge. Second, repeated unlearning interventions may progressively reduce the model capacity needed to preserve retained utility. To address these challenges, we propose the Trajectory-guided Forget-Recover Network (TFR-Net). TFR-Net tracks channel-level risk across requests. It separates persistent target-related channels from transient hotspots and suppresses only the persistent ones. TFR-Net also recovers model capacity by reactivating dormant channels. These channels make strong contributions to retained utility and show low current and historical forget risk. The recovery is accepted only when retained-utility degradation remains within a predefined tolerance. Experiments on four datasets show that TFR-Net consistently achieves a more favorable trade-off between unlearning effectiveness and retained utility than representative baselines.

Predicting where floodwater goes and how deep it gets, at high resolution and across large domains, remains computationally expensive with conventional hydraulic solvers, while purely data-driven surrogates are fast but lack physical guarantees and generalize poorly beyond their training events. We present Inunda, a GPU-native flood inundation model that solves the two-dimensional shallow water equations. Inunda uses a mass-conservative local-inertial scheme and runs multi-day events over millions of cells in minutes on a single GPU. Because every operator is autograd-compatible, the solver is differentiable by construction: model parameters can be estimated by gradient descent against gage observations through reverse-mode automatic differentiation of the full simulation. We demonstrate Inunda on three case studies. For a hindcast of Hurricane Harvey (2017) in Harris County, Texas, Inunda matches surveyed high-water marks to a mean absolute error of 0.67 m, competitive with or better than a suite of established flood models, and reaches a median gage water-level Nash Sutcliffe efficiency of +0.72, more than double the +0.31 of the operational National Water Model v3.0. For the July 2025 Central Texas flash flood, Inunda is driven by an 18-member 1-km convection-allowing precipitation ensemble to produce probabilistic flood forecasts whose skill improves systematically as lead time to the crest shortens. For a post-fire flash-flood application in the Rio Ruidoso burn scar, differentiable calibration recovers the saturated hydraulic conductivity as a spatially explicit field at the model's own resolution and traces its multi-year post-fire recovery. Inunda provides an open, end-to-end pipeline for real-event flood modeling that couples the accuracy of physics-based hydraulics with the calibration and coupling advantages of modern differentiable programming.

Recent studies suggest that with sufficiently wide models, most SGD solutions can, up to permutation, converge into the same basin. This phenomenon, known as the model re-basin regime, has significant implications for model averaging by ensuring the linear mode connectivity. However, current re-basin strategies are ineffective in many scenarios due to a lack of comprehensive understanding of underlying mechanisms. Addressing this gap, this paper provides novel insights into understanding and improving the standard practice. Firstly, we decompose re-normalization into rescaling and reshift, uncovering that rescaling plays a crucial role in re-normalization while re-basin performance is sensitive to shifts in model activation. The finding calls for a more nuanced handling of the activation shift. Secondly, we identify that the merged model suffers from the issue of activation collapse and magnitude collapse. Varying the learning rate, weight decay, and initialization method can mitigate the issues and improve model performance. Lastly, we propose a new perspective to unify the re-basin and pruning, under which a lightweight yet effective post-pruning technique is derived, which can significantly improve the model performance after pruning. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/XingyuQu/rethink-re-basin.

LLM coding agents issue Bash commands through interfaces that may serialize, wrap, and reparse model output. Matched execution scores alone cannot distinguish command-generation errors from failures introduced after generation. QuoteBench measures this boundary with exact final-state validation on 56 one-shot tasks from 14 incident-derived families, crossing the generation contract with the execution transport around one deliberately unescaped added parser. Escaping at the interpolation point reproduces each replayed reply's raw-path outcome, so any recovery under a disclosed boundary must come from the model changing its generation. Across eight same-window configurations, replaying the same reply through the added parser lowers success by 55.4 to 73.2 percentage points; disclosure recovers 30.4 to 60.7 points for six configurations, and zero or slightly negative for the other two. Raw generation is nearly saturated at the frontier; boundary adaptation is what still separates models. GPT-5.6-sol's matched gap of -3.6 points hides -64.3 points of damage and +60.7 points of compensation. The deployment configuration reorders models: one reversal among 26 comparable pairs is unambiguous and four more sit on single-task margins. Evaluations of command-issuing agents should report the model configuration, generation contract, execution path, operating point, and final-state validator rather than treat a matched score as an intrinsic model property.

Self-correction is particularly useful when a failure constrains the next repair. Coding agents benefit from this property because compilers, tests, and execution traces turn many failures into typed recovery signals, but broad language-agent tasks often expose only a coarse task failure. This creates a tension for generic recovery playbooks: they broaden the agent's context precisely when the system needs a narrower repair interface, mixing incompatible signals for invalid actions, missing procedures, and strict-format errors. Our insight is that development-set failures can recover part of the missing diagnostic substrate by deciding which recovery interventions are admissible before test-time correction. We propose DARC, a diagnosis-guided recovery harness that profiles task-family failure modes, prunes mismatched interventions from a shared recovery library, and freezes a verifier-selected success-cost policy for deployment. This causal order makes correction selective: the harness first determines what kind of failure can be repaired, then decides how much recovery evidence to spend. In ALFWorld, AppWorld, and XBRL Finance, the same protocol yields an action-validity harness, a procedural-recovery fallback, and a format-precision retrieval policy; in each evaluated setting it improves average task performance over base agents and broad playbooks while reducing environment steps or retrieval budget. Our experiments show that failures need not trigger uniformly more context: DARC turns self-correction from prompt expansion into recovery-interface design. DARC provides a practical route toward more reliable agents in domains where compiler-like feedback is absent: making failures actionable before making contexts larger.

This paper measures hour-of-day effects, filter precision, fragility, and realised yield in a 15-day paper-traded deployment of an autonomous memecoin trading system on Solana decentralised exchanges. The 190-trade sample (March 29 to April 12, 2026) shows a 40.5 percent win rate, mean per-trade return of +0.62 percent, cumulative +117.7 percent (net SOL +0.039), skewness -1.21, excess kurtosis 6.61. A Mann-Whitney U test of three poorest-performing UTC hours (2, 13, 23) against the others yields U = 1,274, p = 0.22; directional but not significant at n = 190. The three hours were selected in-sample, so the comparison is exploratory, not confirmatory. A parallel counterfactual rejection-tracking system collected 4,874 forward-sample observations across 184 distinct rejection events. Of those events, 17.9 percent reached a 50 percent drawdown from reference within 24 hours; 26.0 percent of forward samples recorded the rejected token below half-reference. The filter stack avoided these realised drawdowns: evidence that the rejection criteria are net-positive against forward-market outcomes. Fragility is the principal caveat. Removing the top three trades (1.6 percent of sample) flips cumulative return unprofitable. Profitability rests on a small number of large winners and is structurally fragile. The dataset and audit script are deposited under CC-BY-4.0 (Zenodo DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20043302).

Autodeleveraging (ADL) is a last-resort loss socialization mechanism for perpetual futures venues. It is triggered when solvency-preserving liquidations fail. Despite the dominance of perpetual futures in the crypto derivatives market, with over \60 trillion of volume in 2024, there has been no formal study of ADL. In this paper, we provide the first rigorous model of ADL. We prove that ADL mechanisms face a fundamental trilemma: no policy can simultaneously satisfy exchange solvency, revenue, and fairness to traders. This impossibility theorem implies that as participation scales, a novel form of moral hazard grows asymptotically, rendering `zero-loss' socialization impossible. On the positive side, we show that three classes of ADL mechanisms can optimally navigate this trilemma to provide fairness, robustness to price shocks, and maximal exchange revenue. We analyze these mechanisms on the Hyperliquid dataset from October 10, 2025, when ADL was used repeatedly to close 2.1 billion of positions in 12 minutes. By comparing production ADL to transparent benchmark allocations, we find that Hyperliquid's production algorithm overshot the minimum trader profit haircut required to cover the shortfall. Our methodology suggests the excess profits lost by profitable traders is between \45.0M and 51.7M. In terms of the positions liquidated, this corresponds to roughly \$653.6M of positions being closed. This comparison also suggests that Binance overutilized ADL far more than Hyperliquid. Our results show both theoretically and empirically that optimized ADL mechanisms can dramatically reduce losses of trader profitability while maintaining exchange solvency.

Sharp, multidimensional changepoints-abrupt shifts in a regression surface whose locations and magnitudes are unknown-arise in settings as varied as gene-expression profiling, financial covariance breaks, climate-regime detection, and urban socioeconomic mapping. Despite their prevalence, there are no current approaches that jointly estimate the location and size of the discontinuity set in a one-shot approach with statistical guarantees. We therefore introduce Free Discontinuity Regression (FDR), a fully nonparametric estimator that simultaneously (i) smooths a regression surface, (ii) segments it into contiguous regions, and (iii) provably recovers the precise locations and sizes of its jumps. By extending a convex relaxation of the Mumford-Shah functional to random spatial sampling and correlated noise, FDR overcomes the fixed-grid and i.i.d. noise assumptions of classical image-segmentation approaches, thus enabling its application to real-world data of any dimension. This yields the first identification and uniform consistency results for multivariate jump surfaces: under mild SBV regularity, the estimated function, its discontinuity set, and all jump sizes converge to their true population counterparts. Hyperparameters are selected automatically from the data using Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimate, and large-scale simulations up to three dimensions validate the theoretical results and demonstrate good finite-sample performance. Applying FDR to an internet shutdown in India reveals a 25-35% reduction in economic activity around the estimated shutdown boundaries-much larger than previous estimates. By unifying smoothing, segmentation, and effect-size recovery in a general statistical setting, FDR turns free-discontinuity ideas into a practical tool with formal guarantees for modern multivariate data.

One-shot Program-of-Thought (PoT) emits a Python program that prints a primitive-action plan; a single invalid action silently invalidates the trajectory. We introduce RePoT (Recoverable PoT): a deterministic verified replay that walks the plan through the environment to its first invalid transition, then one LLM call that resumes from the verified prefix. RePoT costs at most one extra LLM call on the ~14% of problems where PoT fails. RePoT beats PoT by +3 to +11pp across four closed-model configurations on PuzzleZoo-775 and peaks at 96.9% vs 86.3% on gpt-5.4-mini-medium; against the matched-budget PoT-retry baseline, RePoT wins decisively on Gemini (+3.8pp, 95% CI [+2.2,+5.4]), is within sampling noise on GPT-medium and Claude, and loses on GPT-mini -- a capability-scaling pattern we begin to address with Adaptive RePoT, a rule-based dispatcher that routes between suffix repair and a fresh PoT retry based on verified-prefix length (preliminary). We replicate on PlanBench Blocksworld (+1.1 to +11.4pp) and on four open-weights models (+3.3 to +20.0pp on three of four). On Derail-550, our controlled recovery benchmark, every condition with access to checkpoint information clears >=30% on GPT-medium and >=70% on Gemini, vs <=3.1% for error-only feedback -- showing that checkpoint information, not the specific verified-prefix tail, is the load-bearing recovery signal.

Coding agents now produce a growing share of a team's code, while the reasoning behind each change -- the alternatives weighed, the constraints discovered, the approaches rejected -- is trapped in assistant transcripts that vanish with the session. Memory for this setting, the agentic development lifecycle (ADLC), is usually posed as one retrieval problem and built as machinery: tiered stores, memory graphs, compiled wikis, model-judged admission. We argue memory should instead be git-bound -- built into the repository's version control, inheriting the guarantees the machinery struggles to construct: ground truth from commits, freshness from rebuild, verification from the merge, containment from review. On this ledger we solve two problems separately, then combine them. Seed supply is closed as an eight-corpus retrieval study under a pre-registered ship discipline: five imported ranking mechanisms rejected, two kept, and a best configuration of ~0.31 pooled MRR -- ~60x the raw-transcript grep floor, ~15x an honest parsed-turn floor. Answer assembly is where ranking stops helping: single-shot retrieval scores only 0.07-0.20 answer-sufficiency on real developer questions, and ungated episode injection measurably degrades good answers. A router dispatches breadth to a git-anchored structural map, pointed lookups to confidence-gated episodes, and rationale to decision synthesis, which reconstructs why-arcs no single session contains (0.83 sufficiency on a young ~50k-LOC production system). Routed, the system answers at 382-980 tokens per question -- three orders of magnitude below the recorded history. Because ground truth is mined from commit-session links rather than annotated, every result is replicable on any user's own history at zero labeling cost. The remaining constraint is capture. Code, benchmark, and paper source: github.com/rekal-dev/rekal-cli.

Fine-tuning multi-turn dialogue systems requires high-quality supervision but often suffers from degraded performance when exposed to low-quality data. Supervision errors in early turns can propagate across subsequent turns, undermining coherence and response quality. Existing methods typically address data quality via static prefiltering, which decouples quality control from training and fails to mitigate turn-level error propagation. In this context, we propose ReSURE (Regularizing Supervision UnREliability), an adaptive learning method that dynamically down-weights unreliable supervision without explicit filtering. ReSURE estimates per-turn loss distributions using Welford's online statistics and reweights sample losses on the fly accordingly. Experiments on both single-source and mixed-quality datasets show improved stability and response quality. Notably, ReSURE enjoys positive Spearman correlations (0.21 ~ 1.0 across multiple benchmarks) between response scores and number of samples regardless of data quality, which potentially paves the way for utilizing large-scale data effectively. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/Elvin-Yiming-Du/ReSURE_Multi_Turn_Training.

Memory is becoming a core component of long-horizon AI agents, allowing agents to reuse past experience when operating web browsers, software tools, and other interactive environments. Existing work mostly treats memory as a supply problem, asking what experience to write, how to store it, and which entry to retrieve for the next task. Yet we still lack a clear account of how models consume retrieved memory across a multi-step action trajectory. This consumption process matters because it determines not only what memories should be retrieved, but also what models and control policies are needed to use them safely. To diagnose this process, we propose Entry--Propagation--Recovery (E-P-R), a trajectory-level framework that asks where memory first changes an action, whether that change carries forward, and whether the agent can recover after leaving a correct path. We instantiate E-P-R on WebArena and on MemTrapBench, a controlled benchmark we build to isolate these phases. We find that the main failure often begins at entry: agents adopt conflicting memory at the first exposed decision point even when it is task-wrong. Repeated exposure then amplifies this early error, while recovery after divergence is weak. Together, these effects create a compliance trap: across models, conflicting memory induces similar compliance rates, but once agents comply, their success rates collapse to a low floor. Stronger agents therefore suffer larger absolute damage because each compliance event erases more baseline capability. These results suggest that memory-augmented agents should be evaluated not only by retrieval quality or final success rate, but by how they consume memory throughout the trajectory.

Modern reasoning models continue generating long after the answer is already determined. Across five model configurations, two families, and three benchmarks, we find that 52--88\% of chain-of-thought tokens are produced after the answer is recoverable from a partial prefix. This post-commitment generation reveals a structural phenomenon: the detection--extraction gap. Free continuations from early prefixes recover the correct answer even at 10\% of the trace, while forced extraction fails on 42\% of these cases. The answer is recoverable from the model state, yet prompt-conditioned decoding fails to extract it. We formalize this mismatch via a total-variation bound between free and forced continuation distributions, yielding quantitative estimates of suffix-induced shift. Exploiting this asymmetry, we propose Black-box Adaptive Early Exit (), which uses free continuations for both detection and extraction, truncating 70--78\% of serial generation while improving accuracy by 1--5\,pp across all models. For thinking-mode models, early exit prevents post-commitment overwriting, yielding gains of up to 5.8\,pp; a cost-optimized variant achieves 68--73\% reduction at a median of 9 API calls. Code is available at https://github.com/EdWangLoDaSc/know2say.

Closed-loop driving simulation requires real-time interaction beyond short offline clips, pushing current driving world models toward autoregressive (AR) rollout. Existing AR distillation approaches typically rely on frame sinks or student-side degradation training. The former transfers poorly to driving due to fast ego-motion and rapid scene changes, while the latter remains bounded by the teacher's single-pass output length and thus provides only a limited supervision horizon. A natural question is: can the teacher itself be extended via AR rollout to provide unbounded-horizon supervision at bounded memory cost? The key difficulty is that a standard teacher drifts under its own predictions, contaminating the supervision it provides. Our key insight is to make the teacher rollout-capable, ensuring reliable supervision from its own AR rollouts. This is instantiated as HorizonDrive, an anti-drifting training-and-distillation framework for AR driving simulation. First, scheduled rollout recovery (SRR) trains the base model to reconstruct ground-truth future clips from prediction-corrupted histories, yielding a teacher that remains stable across long AR rollouts. Second, the rollout-capable teacher is extended via AR rollout, providing long-horizon distribution-matching supervision under bounded memory, while a short-window student aligns to it with teacher rollout DMD (TRD) for efficient real-time deployment. HorizonDrive natively supports minute-scale AR rollout under bounded memory; on nuScenes, HorizonDrive reduces FID by 52% and FVD by 37%, and lowers ARE and DTW by 21% and 9% relative to the strongest long-horizon streaming baselines, while remaining competitive with single-pass driving video generators.

Large Language Model (LLM) unlearning aims to remove undesirable knowledge or behaviors while preserving retained capabilities. Current unlearning methods all involve a trade-off between unlearning and retention. We have found that the retention activation bias can also be used to quantify the damage an unlearning method inflicts on retention, without considering the specific implementation of the unlearning process. This allows us to restore retention performance for any unlearning method using a post-hoc approach. Therefore, we propose a complementary post-hoc setting to sanitize the final update vector without rerunning the original unlearning pipeline. In this setting, we design SAGE, Spectral Activation-GEometry Sanitization, a source-agnostic correction for final unlearning updates. SAGE collects real module inputs from a small retain proxy, extracts their dominant activation geometry, and solves a source-anchored optimization objective in closed form, which suppresses update components aligned with high-energy retained directions while preserving the source method's forgetting carrier. Across multiple unlearning methods, model scales, and benchmarks, SAGE consistently relieves the retain-forget trade-off, identifying post-hoc sanitization of final vectors as a practical and underexplored axis for machine unlearning.

Coding agents can fix a failing example without preserving the domain rule that made it fail, so later generations can repeat the same plausible mistake. We present agentic synthesis against counterexample-supplemented sketches, a repository-native method for systems whose governing policy is discovered during implementation. A human starts with a partial, code-shaped sketch, and a coding agent generates the first implementation. When a concrete failure exposes missing or mistaken policy, an operator explicitly approves the corrected behavior and rule. The agent then revises the sketch and repairs or regenerates code and prompt surfaces for that one counterexample. The full archive preserves provenance; a selected regression set gates each revision before the next candidate is revealed; and periodic clean regeneration tests whether the evolved sketch, rather than prompt history or accumulated examples, carries the learned policy. We demonstrate the method with CatSynth, a synthetic browser application and captured coding-agent experiment. In one open-world run with GPT-5.4-mini, 8 of 14 frozen candidate cases became counterexamples. The rebuild controls inherited that promotion schedule, and all three paths passed the 8 accepted cases. Rebuilding from the evolved sketch passed 19 of 21 withheld cases, compared with 15 of 21 when rebuilding from the initial sketch and replaying all accepted examples. Retaining code across counterexamples required 9 Developer calls and 719 lines of cumulative artifact churn, versus 15 calls and 2,394 lines for replay-all, and passed 18 of 21 withheld cases. These results provide inspectable evidence that the evolved sketch carried reviewed policy and that retaining code reduced rework in this run; with one model and one reveal order, they do not establish general superiority or correctness beyond the encoded checks.

Long-horizon agents depend on context management: systems compress, summarize, and evict old tokens so tasks can continue beyond finite windows. That is safe only when dropped information is no longer needed or has been internalized. Plans are the stress case: they are written early, used for many steps, and first to be evicted. We introduce replay pairing, a diagnostic that runs the same trajectory with and without the plan in history and measures hidden-state cosine distance. On Llama-3.1-70B, plan signal spikes to 0.453 one step after the plan, then falls 4.1x in a single action-observation step; HotpotQA falls 12.4x. This is evidence that standard LLM agents do not carry plans forward as persistent state, and instead depend on the plan remaining in context. A layer-L32 probe detects this decay as a diagnostic, not as proof that it reads plan content itself. Reasoning models add a measurement confound: their `<think>` traces re-derive plan content, so standard stripping leaves plan evidence in the stripped condition. We name this the reasoning-trace confound and fix it with strict stripping, which removes prior `<think>` blocks from the stripped run only. It recovers +163% of the step+1 signal in-sample and +153% held out, while not meaningfully changing non-reasoning Llama (+4.8%). On DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Llama-70B, a Llama-trained probe transfers at AUROC 0.748 (p=6e-4), while R1-specific probes reach 1.000, suggesting R1 encodes plan signal in a different hidden-state direction. Finally, a compression stress test shows the practical cost: naive plan eviction cuts ALFWorld success by 34.7pp, while probe-gated re-surfacing does not recover it. The contribution is a measurement and stress-test framework showing that agent-critical information can be context-resident rather than persistent. Context management is load bearing, but plan protection alone is not enough.

Post-training quantization (PTQ) is widely used to reduce the cost of serving large language models (LLMs), but its accuracy cost is uneven and is often tuned per model. We study where quantization damage occurs and how to allocate a small additional precision budget. Using causal mixed-precision intervention as ground truth (raise each layer to 8-bit in turn and measure the accuracy it recovers) across 9 open-weight models in 4 architecture families, we test 3 intuitive hypotheses: that quantization damage lives in task circuits, where the model computes, or in weight statistics. None of them predicts which layers benefit from restored precision. Recovery is instead diffuse: for 8 of 9 models, recovering 75% of the gap takes roughly half the layers; the lone exception, Qwen3-8B, is sharply concentrated. At a matched precision budget, spending it globally on finer quantization granularity beats locally repairing the most recoverable layers for all 8 group-128-compatible models (all but OpenLLaMA, whose width rules out group-128), by 21-52 points, including the concentrated Qwen3-8B. We report 2 secondary findings: the residual is budget-limited (8-bit is near-lossless in our evaluation across RTN, GPTQ, and AWQ), and the location of peak recovery correlates with architecture within a family, though not across families. Within this budget setting, global granularity is a better default than selectively protecting critical layers. More broadly, cheap signals that correlate with quantization damage do not necessarily identify where restoring precision improves accuracy; this must be tested with causal intervention.

KV-cache eviction caps the memory cost of long reasoning traces but is inherently lossy because the model decodes from a partial view of its history. Under aggressive budgets, this not only lowers accuracy but can also cause runaway degeneration, where the model produces incoherent or repetitive tokens until reaching the length limit. We characterize much of this loss as an information gapf caused by missing context, rather than a capability gap caused by limited model capacity. An evicted 7B model and a full-context 1.5B model make complementary errors, and an oracle choice between their answers recovers 79% of the accuracy gap to the full-KV 7B model. Based on this observation, we propose KV-Rescue, a training-free inference framework that bridges the information gap introduced by KV eviction using a lightweight full-context helper. KV-Rescue interleaves reasoning steps from the two models into a shared trajectory. An online detector uses entropy and compressibility to terminate the generation of incoherent or repetitive base-model candidates early. Across five math benchmarks with Qwen2.5-Math 7B and 72B, KV-Rescue recovers an average of 87% of the accuracy lost to eviction at eviction budget B=64. A decode-cost analysis further shows that preventing runaway degeneration cuts base-model token generation by 43% on average.

Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly used for multi-step, stateful tool-use tasks, yet production reliability remains limited. Unlike static software repair, agent repair must recover dynamic trajectories whose early decisions can propagate into later errors and external state changes. Existing automatic remedies address only part of this problem: blind retry adds no diagnosis, outcome feedback says whether a run failed but not where or why, and self-reflection often lacks grounded evidence to prevent the same failure from recurring. We present AgentTether, a run-time repair framework that automates post-run diagnosis and guided recovery without modifying the underlying agent or environment. AgentTether abstracts each run into Transition Units, links them through a dependency-aware Critical Transition Graph, and localizes failure-critical subtrajectories by combining an offline normal-behavior model with a run-local graph detector. It then converts the localized cause into behavior-scoped guidance backed by cross-iteration Repair Memory, and can optionally apply guarded run-time intervention to keep the correction active during re-execution. The same design can be deployed as an offline diagnostic-and-guidance tool or as an online repair layer. We evaluate AgentTether on 261 tau-bench tasks across three domains with Qwen3.7-max, and test cross-model transfer on Banking with GPT-5.4. On the hardest Banking domain, AgentTether repairs 59.04% (49/83) of initially failed Qwen3.7-max tasks and 65.12% (56/86) of initially failed GPT-5.4 tasks. Overall, AgentTether improves repair effectiveness while reducing agent turns and end-to-end approach tokens, suggesting a practical reliability layer that can wrap existing agent deployments, reduce wasted re-execution, and improve recovery without retraining the agent.

Real-world Image Restoration (Real-IR) aims to recover high-quality (HQ) images from complex and unknown degradations. Although recent diffusion-based methods have substantially improved perceptual quality, their current designs leave two key challenges unresolved. Methods that start from Gaussian noise are slow and often less faithful to the degraded input. Residual-based methods usually train from scratch, which makes it hard to exploit modern pre-trained generative priors. In this paper, we present ScaleResfusion, a scalable diffusion framework for real-world image restoration built on pre-trained text-to-image rectified-flow models. The core of our method is Residual Rectified Flow, which introduces the residual term R into Standard Rectified Flow. Instead of starting from pure noise, it uses a residual transport path that starts from noisy low-quality (LQ) images and admits an exact acceleration point. By learning the residual vector field, Residual Rectified Flow keeps the output distribution and linear diffusion process consistent with the pre-trained rectified-flow models. This makes parameter-efficient fine-tuning possible at scale. We further introduce a knowledge-distillation pipeline to reduce sampling cost while maintaining restoration quality. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world restoration tasks show that ScaleResfusion achieves state-of-the-art performance with much higher efficiency. These results suggest a practical and scalable way to adapt large pre-trained diffusion models to real-world image restoration. Our code and models are available at https://github.com/YukinoshitaLove/ScaleResfusion.

Works on lottery ticket hypothesis (LTH) and single-shot network pruning (SNIP) have raised a lot of attention currently on post-training pruning (iterative magnitude pruning), and before-training pruning (pruning at initialization). The former method suffers from an extremely large computation cost and the latter usually struggles with insufficient performance. In comparison, during-training pruning, a class of pruning methods that simultaneously enjoys the training/inference efficiency and the comparable performance, temporarily, has been less explored. To better understand during-training pruning, we quantitatively study the effect of pruning throughout training from the perspective of pruning plasticity (the ability of the pruned networks to recover the original performance). Pruning plasticity can help explain several other empirical observations about neural network pruning in literature. We further find that pruning plasticity can be substantially improved by injecting a brain-inspired mechanism called neuroregeneration, i.e., to regenerate the same number of connections as pruned. We design a novel gradual magnitude pruning (GMP) method, named gradual pruning with zero-cost neuroregeneration (GraNet), that advances state of the art. Perhaps most impressively, its sparse-to-sparse version for the first time boosts the sparse-to-sparse training performance over various dense-to-sparse methods with ResNet-50 on ImageNet without extending the training time. We release all codes in https://github.com/Shiweiliuiiiiiii/GraNet.

Objects in post-fire environments often undergo irreversible physical transformations that change their geometry, material state, and visual appearance. Detecting and identifying these remnants is critical for locating hazards, reconstructing pre-incident contents, and inventorying losses. Unlike standard image corruptions, these degradations affect the physical structure of the object itself. To study this setting, we introduce TRACE, a transformation-aware benchmark for post-fire object understanding. TRACE contains 21.4K real-image-grounded synthetic scenes and paired object-level pristine-to-degraded progressions spanning 499 object identities across 189 categories. We define five tasks targeting localization and pre-degradation understanding: degraded-object detection, pristine-state recovery and retrieval, original material recovery, pristine description generation, and functional reasoning. Existing models degrade sharply with severity. From the least to the most severe level, RF-DETR mAP decreases by 71% relative, while InternVL3.5 retrieval R@1 falls from 93.85 to 28.11. To address this, we propose the Feature Recovery Module (FRM), a plug-and-play module that maps degraded encoder features to pristine-aligned representations while keeping the host frozen. Trained only with paired feature supervision, FRM improves scene-level detection, CLIP/SigLIP2 feature recovery, and all four object-level VLM tasks, with larger gains under more severe degradation. Across VLM hosts and severity levels, relative gains average 12.5% for retrieval, 20.1% for material recovery, 13.2% for description generation, and 12.4% for functional reasoning.

We present ROCKET, a training-free model compression method that achieves state-of-the-art performance in comparison with factorization, structured-sparsification and dynamic compression baselines. Operating under a global compression budget, ROCKET comprises two key innovations: First, it formulates layer-wise compression allocation as a multi-choice knapsack problem, selecting the optimal compression level for each layer to minimize total reconstruction error while adhering to a target model size. Second, it introduces a single-step sparse matrix factorization inspired by dictionary learning: using only a small calibration set, it sparsifies weight coefficients based on activation-weights sensitivity and then updates the dictionary in closed form via least squares bypassing iterative optimization, sparse coding, or backpropagation entirely. ROCKET consistently outperforms existing compression approaches across different model architectures at 20-50\% compression rates. Notably, it retains over 90\% of the original model's performance at 30\% compression without any fine-tuning. Moreover, when applying a light fine-tuning phase, recovery is substantially enhanced: for instance, compressing Qwen3-14B to an 8B-parameter model and healing it with just 30 million tokens yields performance nearly on par with the original Qwen3-8B. The code for ROCKET is at github.com/mts-ai/ROCKET/tree/main.

Image restoration networks are usually comprised of an encoder and a decoder, responsible for aggregating image content from noisy, distorted data and to restore clean, undistorted images, respectively. Data aggregation as well as high-resolution image generation both usually come at the risk of involving aliases, i.e.~standard architectures put their ability to reconstruct the model input in jeopardy to reach high PSNR values on validation data. The price to be paid is low model robustness. In this work, we show that simply providing alias-free paths in state-of-the-art reconstruction transformers supports improved model robustness at low costs on the restoration performance. We do so by proposing BOA-Restormer, a transformer-based image restoration model that executes downsampling and upsampling operations partly in the frequency domain to ensure alias-free paths along the entire model while potentially preserving all relevant high-frequency information.

This paper presents Post-Decision Proximal Policy Optimization (PDPPO), a novel variation of the leading deep reinforcement learning method, Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO). The PDPPO state transition process is divided into two steps: a deterministic step resulting in the post-decision state and a stochastic step leading to the next state. Our approach incorporates post-decision states and dual critics to reduce the problem's dimensionality and enhance the accuracy of value function estimation. Lot-sizing is a mixed integer programming problem for which we exemplify such dynamics. The objective of lot-sizing is to optimize production, delivery fulfillment, and inventory levels in uncertain demand and cost parameters. This paper evaluates the performance of PDPPO across various environments and configurations. Notably, PDPPO with a dual critic architecture achieves nearly double the maximum reward of vanilla PPO in specific scenarios, requiring fewer episode iterations and demonstrating faster and more consistent learning across different initializations. On average, PDPPO outperforms PPO in environments with a stochastic component in the state transition. These results support the benefits of using a post-decision state. Integrating this post-decision state in the value function approximation leads to more informed and efficient learning in high-dimensional and stochastic environments.

In this article, we consider the problem of a bank's loan portfolio in the context of liquidity risk, while allowing for the limited liability protection enjoyed by the bank. Accordingly, we construct a novel loan portfolio model with limited liability, while maintaining a threshold level of haircut in the portfolio. For the constructed three-time step loan portfolio, at the initial time, the bank raises capital via debt and equity, investing the same in several classes of loans, while at the final time, the bank either meets its liabilities or becomes insolvent. At the intermediate time step, a fraction of the deposits are withdrawn, resulting in liquidation of some of the bank's assets. The liquidated portfolio is designed with the goal of minimizing the liquidation cost. Our theoretical results show that model with the haircut constraint leads to lesser liquidity risk, as compared to the scenario of no haircut constraint being imposed. Finally, we present numerical results to illustrate the theoretical results which were obtained.

On-Policy distillation (OPD) in large language models is shifting from full-trace KL supervision toward more selective training paradigms. Recent OPD methods increasingly focus on selecting which trajectories to learn from, which tokens are most informative, and which supervision signals are most reliable. Motivated by this trend, we rethink optimization granularity of OPD and propose \fireicon\ FiRe-OPD (Filter, then Reweight), which jointly adjusts supervision signals at both trajectory and token levels. In details, FiRe-OPD first filters trajectories to remove low-quality rollout samples, and then applies soft reweighting within the retained trajectories to emphasize informative tokens. Compared with hard token selection, FiRe-OPD leverages a soft-weighting mechanism to effectively mitigate information loss and enhance optimization stability, thereby achieving finer-grained OPD optimization. We validate the effectiveness of FiRe-OPD across strong-to-weak, single-teacher, and multi-teacher settings, and demonstrate its superiority over recent token-level OPD methods ( (e.g., +6.25 on AIME 2024 in strong-to-weak, +18.81 on Miner in multi-teacher). Our code is available at https://github.com/YuYingLi0/FiRe-OPD.

Proactive interventions by LLM critic models are often assumed to improve reliability, yet their effects at deployment time are poorly understood. We show that a binary LLM critic with strong offline accuracy (AUROC 0.94) can nevertheless cause severe performance degradation, inducing a 26 percentage point (pp) collapse on one model while affecting another by near zero pp. This variability demonstrates that LLM critic accuracy alone is insufficient to determine whether intervention is safe. We identify a disruption-recovery tradeoff: interventions may recover failing trajectories but also disrupt trajectories that would have succeeded. Based on this insight, we propose a pre-deployment test that uses a small pilot of 50 tasks to estimate whether intervention is likely to help or harm, without requiring full deployment. Across benchmarks, the test correctly anticipates outcomes: intervention degrades performance on high-success tasks (0 to -26 pp), while yielding a modest improvement on the high-failure ALFWorld benchmark (+2.8 pp, p=0.014). The primary value of our framework is therefore identifying when not to intervene, preventing severe regressions before deployment.

Low-Rank Adaptive Residual Connections (LARC) give a frozen model a compact numerical state that can learn from feedback. The map h+BAh adds a low-rank correction to a hidden representation. A slow state ρ learns starting factors across tasks; a private fast state Φ copies them, changes with feedback, and resets to the trained initialization. This report specifies an input-side realization of the numerical policy carrier in Memory-Mediated Learning Architecture and examines its factor-space dynamics and learning lifetime. We study a rank-4 input residual with 12,288 trainable parameters on a frozen MiniCPM5-1B-SFT substrate. In a four-candidate program-selection task, two feedback-gradient steps reduce expected query execution error by 24.65 and 36.65 percentage points relative to resetting to the respective trained static and post-adaptation initializations. These development results cover 16 parameter groups and three paired training seeds. A direct support-loss selection rule is much more accurate, reaching 0.78125% error. In a repository-balanced chronological replay of public continuous-integration jobs, retaining online updates raises half-Brier loss from 0.1274 to 0.1808. A fixed follow-up intervention records same-batch non-descent and inconsistent future benefit from shrinking updates. Together, the algebra and measurements distinguish residual capacity, adaptation relative to a starting point, and usefulness on later decisions.

We study fact-level repair for multimodal generation, where a fluent output may contain specific facts that are not supported by the input. Existing inference-time repair methods often generate feedback by jointly conditioning on the input and the current output. This design has two limitations: hallucinated claims in the output can bias the model's interpretation of the input, and free-form feedback cannot be ranked or scheduled at the fact level. We present TIGER, an inference-time framework that redesigns feedback for localized repair. TIGER independently extracts an observation graph from the input and a claim graph from the current output, then assigns each claim a graph-conditioned risk score based on support and conflict. The model repairs selected high-risk claims while keeping the backbone frozen. We provide a convergence analysis showing that the expected total risk decreases geometrically to an explicit asymptotic bound under mild assumptions. Experiments across four cross-modal paths, including image-to-text, image+text-to-text, audio-to-text, and video-to-text, show that TIGER reduces unsupported content while preserving task quality. The gains hold across multiple backbones, and a CrisisFACTS case study suggests that the same repair mechanism can improve grounding in multi-source settings.